The Daily DAWN

July 10, 1998

Editorial Comment

A nation of 130 million


THE provisional results of the national census 1998 announced by the finance minister on Wednesday are likely to evoke a mixed reaction. One has a lot to be thankful, however, for the head count having been held at all. Coming after a delay of seven years, the census had become an imperative necessity which the country could no longer do without. But one cannot blame the sceptics either. Given the controversy which had surrounded the exercise and the fact that the government had decided to centralize the tabulation and consolidation of results, it is not surprising that there are people who doubt the veracity of the figures released.

The possibility of under-enumeration cannot be ruled out if one keeps in mind the number of people who have complained of having been left out. Also, the government's own estimates of the population size, published every year on the basis of random surveys conducted by the Bureau of Statistics, have been much higher than the census count. For instance, the country's population has been given as 139.2 million in the Economic Survey 1997-98 as against 130.5 million in the census. Similarly, the population of Sindh was assessed to be 34.4 million by the Sindh Bureau of Statistics while the census puts it at 29.9 million. The biggest surprise is about Karachi's population, estimated to be 9.2 million, which might be considered under-assessed by many.

Yet the census has a pre-eminence of its own and one must go by the statistics it contains. The two sectors which normally feel the impact of census results most are the constitutional/electoral structure and socio-economic planning. Since the proportion of the population of various provinces in relation to each other has changed nominally, no major adjustments in the National Assembly and Senate seats and in the NFC award might be called for. However, the internal shifts in the populations of the different districts of the provinces would have to be taken into account in delineating the constituencies. The socio-economic plans must logically be based on the distribution of population in various areas of the country. If the census figures are not accurate, our planning, lopsided as it is, will fail to show results.

Three distinct features to have emerged from the preliminary census results are the slowing down of the population growth rate, speedier urbanization and the declining sex ratio. The population growth rate has declined to 2.6 per cent which is very encouraging compared to the rate of 3.06 per cent calculated in the last census. One cannot be certain how much of the success in curbing the population explosion is due to the government's population programme. But one must give credit to the governments which have been in office in the post-1988 period for the open approach they have maintained in respect of the communication and information strategy of the family planning policy. This has enabled NGOs to work more actively in the field in response to the demographic challenge. But most importantly, economic and social development has proved to be a strong motivating factor. As female literacy and emancipation have increased and people have tasted the fruits of economic development, they have become aware of the importance of small families.

The growing urbanization is in keeping with the worldwide demographic trend. It is not at all surprising that the proportion of the people living in rural areas in Pakistan has gone down from 71.7 per cent in 1981 to 67.5 per cent today. The growing pressure on land, combined with unemployment in the rural areas, has driven people to move to the cities in search of a living. The trend is not without its load of problems for the country. The fact that half the urban population is concentrated in just seven cities of Punjab and Sindh (38 per cent in Karachi, Lahore and Faisalabad) is a clear indication of the pressure on the municipal services in the country. It is plain that the city administrations are not yet poised to cope with this influx. Whether the census results will shake the municipal authorities out of their lethargy and inertia is at best a matter of conjecture.

The sex ratio has improved - according to Mr Sartaj Aziz, on account of better enumeration of women and longer female life expectancy. But there is something still fundamentally wrong with a society which has more men than women as is the case in Pakistan. This is contrary to the laws of nature. Biologically women are known to outlive men and the global ratio of men to 100 women is 94. In Pakistan this is 108.1. It is time we looked more seriously into the issue of the status of women in this country. Since other data has not yet been compiled yet, especially that concerning literacy, health and so on, we will have to wait for a fuller assessment of the census results.

The Census Results -- The Frontier Post -- Editorial
Altaf Hussain Rejects 1998 Census Results
Census Results -- The Nation